Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
39
Model margin
+2.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.131
- 40.6%Success rate39.5%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.097
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.183
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- 34.5%Third-down rate32.4%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
- 1.17Points / drive1.22
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 47 points. CLE are 10-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:41 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:02 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CLE | Q1 4:11 | 1 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 4:01 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 0:38 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q2 12:17 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q2 10:29 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q2 7:22 | 6 | 13 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q2 4:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q2 2:17 | 3 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q2 1:24 | 9 | 43 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 12:09 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q3 9:56 | 8 | 92 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| TEN | Q3 6:12 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CLE | Q3 3:48 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 7–17 |
| TEN | Q3 2:06 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 7–17 |
| CLE | Q3 1:13 | 5 | 46 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| TEN | Q4 13:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CLE | Q4 13:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–20 |
| TEN | Q4 10:32 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| CLE | Q4 7:13 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 14–20 |
| TEN | Q4 3:24 | 6 | 11 | Turnover on downs | 14–20 |
| CLE | Q4 1:44 | 3 | 6 | Missed field goal | 14–20 |
| TEN | Q4 0:39 | 3 | 42 | Turnover | 14–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/41 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 18/34 | 272 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.87