Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
39
Model margin
+2.9est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.131
- 40.6%Success rate39.5%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.097
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.183
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- 34.5%Third-down rate32.4%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
- 1.17Points / drive1.22
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. CLE are 9-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/41 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Payton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 18/34 | 272 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.87