Closing spread
DET -4
Total
40
Model margin
+0.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.102
- 40.7%Success rate38.8%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.109
- -0.308EPA / rush-0.090
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.7%
- 38.3%Third-down rate38.8%
- 42.5%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.36Points / drive1.20
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. DET are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 11:17 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 8:19 | 11 | 56 | Punt | 0–9 |
| ARI | Q1 2:50 | 1 | -2 | Safety | 0–9 |
| DET | Q1 2:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–9 |
| ARI | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–9 |
| DET | Q2 14:34 | 6 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–16 |
| ARI | Q2 11:13 | 12 | 49 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| DET | Q2 5:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–16 |
| ARI | Q2 3:12 | 2 | 22 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| DET | Q2 2:34 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 11–19 |
| DET | Q3 9:53 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 11–26 |
| ARI | Q3 6:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 11–26 |
| DET | Q3 4:34 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 11–26 |
| ARI | Q3 2:57 | 8 | 67 | Field goal | 14–26 |
| DET | Q4 14:09 | 9 | 78 | Field goal | 14–29 |
| ARI | Q4 8:35 | 5 | 39 | Punt | 14–29 |
| DET | Q4 6:16 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 14–29 |
| ARI | Q4 3:35 | 6 | 62 | Touchdown | 21–29 |
| DET | Q4 2:24 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–29 |
| ARI | Q4 1:01 | 5 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 21–29 |
| DET | Q4 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/45 | 359 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 22/32 | 231 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76