Closing spread
JAX -8
Total
34
Model margin
+4.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play+0.026
- 38.7%Success rate42.5%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.079
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- 39.5%Third-down rate41.0%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.20Points / drive1.68
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.066
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:43 | 11 | 39 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:43 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 2:58 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:15 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q2 11:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q2 10:22 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q2 6:46 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 5:03 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q2 2:51 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BAL | Q2 2:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:48 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q3 13:04 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 11:29 | 6 | 51 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q3 9:24 | 13 | 92 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q3 2:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–17 |
| JAX | Q3 0:37 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q4 11:27 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q4 9:41 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q4 6:41 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q4 5:59 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| BAL | Q4 2:40 | 2 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 3–30 |
| BAL | Q4 2:01 | 4 | -2 | Turnover on downs | 3–30 |
| JAX | Q4 0:46 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 19/33 | 142 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 16/30 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.34