2005 · Week 10

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

3·30

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

JAX -8

Total

34

Model margin

+4.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJaguars
  • -0.109EPA / play+0.026
  • 38.7%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.079
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 39.5%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.68
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.066

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller19/3314203

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis14443.10
Kyle Boller294.50
Mark Clayton100.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich16/3021110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones2126.00
Alvin Pearman393.00
LaBrandon Toefield133.00
Byron Leftwich430.80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.34