Closing spread
ATL -9.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.020
- 42.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.024
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.29Points / drive1.65
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/39 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 25 | 103 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| ReShard Lee | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 20/30 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26