Closing spread
ATL -9.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.020
- 42.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.024
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.29Points / drive1.65
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 9–8 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. ATL are 10-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:54 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:09 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:22 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:50 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 14–0 |
| GB | Q1 2:30 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q1 0:53 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| GB | Q2 12:18 | 4 | 30 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q2 10:58 | 4 | 19 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| GB | Q2 9:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ATL | Q2 7:52 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 14–14 |
| GB | Q2 5:19 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q2 0:40 | 5 | 33 | End of half | 17–14 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| ATL | Q3 9:52 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| GB | Q3 8:36 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 20–14 |
| ATL | Q3 7:43 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 20–14 |
| GB | Q3 5:19 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| ATL | Q3 1:51 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 23–14 |
| GB | Q4 13:40 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 23–14 |
| ATL | Q4 12:36 | 6 | 13 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| GB | Q4 10:08 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 26–17 |
| ATL | Q4 4:01 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 32–17 |
| GB | Q4 3:38 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 33–17 |
| ATL | Q4 3:34 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 33–25 |
| GB | Q4 1:43 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 33–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/39 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 25 | 103 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| ReShard Lee | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 20/30 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26