Closing spread
IND -17
Total
45
Model margin
+6.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play+0.188
- 40.0%Success rate51.2%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.339
- -0.098EPA / rush-0.007
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.0%Third-down rate50.1%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.30Points / drive2.60
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/25 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/35 | 297 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 122 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.28