Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:50 | 14 | 61 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:35 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 2:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:22 | 10 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 11:09 | 5 | 88 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:45 | 8 | 34 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 4:22 | 14 | 73 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:15 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 14:45 | 4 | 9 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| SEA | Q3 12:22 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| LA | Q3 9:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–17 |
| SEA | Q3 7:41 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| LA | Q3 4:59 | 9 | 27 | Field goal | 9–24 |
| SEA | Q3 0:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–24 |
| LA | Q4 13:29 | 8 | 62 | Turnover | 9–24 |
| SEA | Q4 9:26 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 9–24 |
| LA | Q4 8:35 | 5 | 18 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| SEA | Q4 7:00 | 13 | 64 | Touchdown | 16–31 |
| LA | Q4 1:12 | 7 | 59 | End of half | 16–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/29 | 243 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 33 | 165 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.