Closing spread
STL -9
Total
48
Model margin
+2.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:07 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:54 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 7:35 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:22 | 7 | 25 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 14:07 | 12 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 8:53 | 13 | 55 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:50 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:26 | 3 | 19 | End of half | 13–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:09 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| ARI | Q3 7:38 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 16–17 |
| LA | Q3 4:52 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 16–17 |
| ARI | Q3 3:14 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 16–17 |
| LA | Q3 0:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 16–17 |
| ARI | Q4 14:10 | 11 | 53 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| LA | Q4 8:11 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 24–20 |
| ARI | Q4 3:35 | 2 | 5 | Touchdown | 31–20 |
| LA | Q4 3:11 | 1 | -9 | Turnover | 31–20 |
| ARI | Q4 2:58 | 4 | 6 | Touchdown | 38–20 |
| LA | Q4 1:54 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 38–28 |
| ARI | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–28 |
| LA | Q4 0:33 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 38–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 27/39 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Marcel Shipp | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.