Closing spread
DAL -8
Total
39
Model margin
+2.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.023
- 38.8%Success rate40.5%
- -0.109EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.143
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- 38.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.55
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 6:58 | 10 | 49 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 1:13 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 13:22 | 14 | 40 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DET | Q2 6:39 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 2:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 1:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 0:38 | 6 | -6 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| DET | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q3 13:20 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DET | Q3 9:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q3 8:24 | 13 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| DET | Q3 2:21 | 11 | 48 | Missed field goal | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q4 11:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–20 |
| DET | Q4 6:56 | 7 | 41 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| DAL | Q4 4:17 | 6 | 35 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 17/25 | 169 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 12/23 | 110 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 21 | 92 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.69