Closing spread
IND -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.188EPA / play+0.102
- 51.2%Success rate48.2%
- +0.339EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.007EPA / rush+0.023
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- 50.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.60Points / drive2.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. CIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 8:56 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| IND | Q1 4:47 | 1 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q1 4:30 | 3 | 89 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| IND | Q1 3:23 | 11 | 46 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| CIN | Q2 14:12 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| IND | Q2 9:13 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| CIN | Q2 7:11 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–17 |
| IND | Q2 5:44 | 6 | 40 | Touchdown | 35–17 |
| CIN | Q2 3:41 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 35–20 |
| IND | Q2 1:29 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 35–20 |
| CIN | Q2 1:01 | 4 | 14 | Touchdown | 35–27 |
| IND | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–27 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 46 | Touchdown | 35–34 |
| IND | Q3 12:52 | 15 | 77 | Touchdown | 42–34 |
| CIN | Q3 4:29 | 7 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 42–34 |
| IND | Q3 1:28 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 42–34 |
| CIN | Q4 14:37 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 42–34 |
| IND | Q4 10:56 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 45–34 |
| CIN | Q4 6:16 | 6 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 45–34 |
| IND | Q4 4:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 45–34 |
| CIN | Q4 3:49 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 45–37 |
| IND | Q4 1:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 45–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/40 | 365 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/38 | 335 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Perry | 8 | 82 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 2 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.31