Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
38
Model margin
-2.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.113
- 42.5%Success rate40.6%
- +0.113EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.171
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.1%
- 41.0%Third-down rate34.5%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.68Points / drive1.17
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:13 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:01 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 6:24 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 5:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 3:46 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 2:14 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 14:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q2 13:28 | 13 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 7:08 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| TEN | Q2 1:10 | 4 | 11 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| TEN | Q3 8:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–20 |
| JAX | Q3 7:18 | 1 | -11 | Opp touchdown | 14–21 |
| JAX | Q3 7:08 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| TEN | Q3 4:02 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 21–21 |
| JAX | Q3 0:50 | 11 | 94 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| TEN | Q4 9:21 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 28–21 |
| JAX | Q4 7:01 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 28–21 |
| TEN | Q4 6:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 28–21 |
| JAX | Q4 4:30 | 9 | 31 | Field goal | 31–21 |
| TEN | Q4 1:52 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 31–28 |
| JAX | Q4 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 22/38 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 6 | -8 | -1.3 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 20/30 | 208 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 20 | 61 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.99