Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.099
- 45.7%Success rate40.0%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.099
- +0.042EPA / rush-0.098
- 10.6%Explosive rate6.2%
- 43.7%Third-down rate34.0%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 2.01Points / drive1.30
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 19/29 | 220 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 36 | 211 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/36 | 182 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 1 |
| David Carr | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.81