Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.099
- 45.7%Success rate40.0%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.099
- +0.042EPA / rush-0.098
- 10.6%Explosive rate6.2%
- 43.7%Third-down rate34.0%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 2.01Points / drive1.30
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:32 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:24 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| HOU | Q1 4:20 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q1 2:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:23 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 10–7 |
| HOU | Q2 13:25 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 10–7 |
| KC | Q2 11:42 | 4 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| HOU | Q2 10:14 | 3 | 18 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| KC | Q2 8:33 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| HOU | Q2 6:23 | 10 | 44 | Turnover | 24–7 |
| KC | Q2 1:45 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 24–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:39 | 5 | 27 | Opp touchdown | 31–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–7 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Turnover | 31–7 |
| HOU | Q3 11:33 | 6 | 37 | Touchdown | 31–14 |
| KC | Q3 8:54 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 31–14 |
| HOU | Q3 5:26 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| KC | Q3 0:42 | 13 | 61 | Touchdown | 38–17 |
| HOU | Q4 8:38 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 38–17 |
| KC | Q4 7:43 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 45–17 |
| HOU | Q4 4:35 | 7 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 45–17 |
| KC | Q4 3:14 | 3 | 20 | End of half | 45–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 19/29 | 220 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 36 | 211 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/36 | 182 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 1 |
| David Carr | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.81