Closing spread
KC -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.071
- 39.1%Success rate47.7%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.058
- 8.3%Explosive rate5.8%
- -2.77CPOE+2.51
- 38.2%Third-down rate48.6%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.84Points / drive2.36
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 19/28 | 245 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 5 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Wayne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/25 | 177 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 117 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.94