2024 · DIV

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

14·23

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 23°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

KC -9.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChiefs
  • -0.038EPA / play+0.071
  • 39.1%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.058
  • 8.3%Explosive rate5.8%
  • -2.77CPOE+2.51
  • 38.2%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.36
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC
2016 · W2KC @ HOU12–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–KC
KCQ1 15:003-1Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 13:58968Field goal3–3
KCQ1 8:41941Field goal3–6
HOUQ1 3:59612Punt3–6
KCQ1 0:48729Punt3–6
HOUQ2 11:22743Missed field goal3–6
KCQ2 7:01555Touchdown3–13
HOUQ2 4:36951Field goal6–13
KCQ2 0:1600End of half6–13
HOUQ3 15:0017101Touchdown12–13
KCQ3 4:361475Touchdown12–20
HOUQ4 11:52610Turnover on downs12–20
KCQ4 9:5931Punt12–20
HOUQ4 8:3234Punt12–20
KCQ4 7:35636Field goal12–23
HOUQ4 4:381048Missed field goal12–23
KCQ4 1:462-14Safety14–23
HOUQ4 0:1100End of half14–23

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud19/2824500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon18884.91
C.J. Stroud6427.00
Dameon Pierce4102.50
Dare Ogunbowale199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins58810
Dalton Schultz44630
Xavier Hutchinson46520
John Metchie III22350
Joe Mixon23120
Irv Smith1120
Dare Ogunbowale1100
Dameon Pierce0100
Jared Wayne0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes16/2517710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt8445.51
Isiah Pacheco5183.60
Patrick Mahomes7142.00
Xavier Worthy1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce781171
Xavier Worthy56450
Noah Gray33130
Kareem Hunt1120
DeAndre Hopkins0100
Samaje Perine0100
JuJu Smith-Schuster0100
Marquise Brown0200
Isiah Pacheco0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+2.94