2019 · DIV

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

31·51

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

50.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChiefs
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.135
  • 45.6%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.247
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.12CPOE+1.86
  • 43.7%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.18Points / drive2.59
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC
2016 · W2KC @ HOU12–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–KC
HOUQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 11:5939Opp touchdown14–0
KCQ1 10:06637Punt14–0
HOUQ1 7:08829Punt14–0
HOUQ1 2:0926Touchdown21–0
KCQ1 1:2130Punt21–0
HOUQ1 0:49948Field goal24–0
KCQ2 10:54242Touchdown24–7
HOUQ2 9:5548Turnover on downs24–7
KCQ2 8:2845Touchdown24–14
HOUQ2 8:0500Touchdown24–14
KCQ2 7:5612Touchdown24–14
KCQ2 7:2024Touchdown24–21
HOUQ2 6:31627Punt24–21
KCQ2 2:47975Touchdown24–28
HOUQ2 0:44344Missed field goal24–28
KCQ3 15:00785Touchdown24–34
HOUQ3 11:2448Punt24–34
KCQ3 8:34853Touchdown24–41
HOUQ3 4:39975Touchdown31–41
KCQ3 0:24472Touchdown31–48
HOUQ4 13:52633Turnover on downs31–48
KCQ4 11:37652Field goal31–51
HOUQ4 8:061021Turnover on downs31–51
KCQ4 4:5331Punt31–51
HOUQ4 3:491368Turnover on downs31–51
KCQ4 1:3400End of half31–51

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson31/5238820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde13443.40
Deshaun Watson6376.21
Duke Johnson11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins9141180
Will Fuller58890
Kenny Stills36801
Duke Johnson58230
Darren Fells37221
Carlos Hyde34180
DeAndre Carter11170
Taiwan Jones11140

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3532150

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes7537.60
Damien Williams12473.92
Sammy Watkins11414.00
Tyreek Hill144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce10121343
Sammy Watkins22760
Tyreek Hill34410
Damien Williams26211
Mecole Hardman24190
Blake Bell22151
Deon Yelder11110
Demarcus Robinson1440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+5.39