Closing spread
KC -10
Total
50.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.135
- 45.6%Success rate47.0%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.247
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.12CPOE+1.86
- 43.7%Third-down rate48.7%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.18Points / drive2.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 31/52 | 388 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 14 | 118 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 5 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 6 | 80 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 3 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/35 | 321 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 12 | 134 | 3 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 2 | 76 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 6 | 21 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.39