Closing spread
KC -9.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.177
- 47.8%Success rate50.2%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.056
- 9.7%Explosive rate11.0%
- +6.51CPOE+2.60
- 43.5%Third-down rate49.5%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.25Points / drive2.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 20/32 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 11 | 77 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 8 | 10 | 112 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/32 | 211 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 25 | 138 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 7 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93