2020 · Week 1

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

20·34

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -9.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chiefs

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChiefs
  • +0.093EPA / play+0.177
  • 47.8%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.288
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.056
  • 9.7%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +6.51CPOE+2.60
  • 43.5%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.85
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC
2016 · W2KC @ HOU12–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–KC
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
KCQ1 14:07821Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:06980Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 4:541175Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 14:13425Punt7–7
KCQ2 11:301686Touchdown7–14
HOUQ2 2:261047Missed field goal7–14
KCQ2 0:25428Field goal7–17
KCQ3 15:00780Touchdown7–24
HOUQ3 10:53827Punt7–24
KCQ3 5:57847Punt7–24
HOUQ3 1:12431Turnover7–24
KCQ4 14:15710Touchdown7–31
HOUQ4 11:251075Touchdown13–31
KCQ4 7:1533Punt13–31
HOUQ4 5:29765Touchdown20–31
KCQ4 2:38519Field goal20–34
HOUQ4 0:3026End of half20–34

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson20/3225311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson11777.01
Deshaun Watson6274.51
Duke Johnson5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller8101120
Jordan Akins22391
David Johnson34320
Randall Cobb23230
Brandin Cooks25200
Darren Fells22190
DeAndre Carter1280
Kenny Stills0200
Duke Johnson0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3221130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire251385.51
Darrel Williams7233.30
Sammy Watkins133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins79821
Travis Kelce66501
Tyreek Hill56461
Demarcus Robinson36200
Darrel Williams2270
Mecole Hardman1160
Clyde Edwards-Helaire0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.93