Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.042
- 41.7%Success rate44.5%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.060
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.68CPOE-1.09
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.4%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.05Points / drive2.23
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 15/31 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 26 | 68 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 8 | 121 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 14/33 | 160 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 1 | -10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.79