2025 · Week 14

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

20·10

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -4.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChiefs
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.042
  • 41.7%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.060
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.68CPOE-1.09
  • 37.4%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.23
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC
2016 · W2KC @ HOU12–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–KC
KCQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:44819Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:1646Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:45660Field goal3–0
KCQ1 4:18728Punt3–0
HOUQ2 14:541190Touchdown10–0
KCQ2 9:2421Turnover10–0
HOUQ2 8:34615Punt10–0
KCQ2 5:311157Missed field goal10–0
HOUQ2 1:00617End of half10–0
HOUQ3 15:003-4Punt10–0
KCQ3 14:00856Touchdown10–7
HOUQ3 9:5232Punt10–7
KCQ3 9:03742Punt10–7
HOUQ3 5:3630Punt10–7
KCQ3 4:35630Field goal10–10
HOUQ3 1:5030Punt10–10
KCQ3 0:4434Turnover10–10
HOUQ4 14:53619Punt10–10
KCQ4 11:2549Turnover on downs10–10
HOUQ4 10:18631Touchdown17–10
KCQ4 6:5646Turnover on downs17–10
HOUQ4 5:2633Punt17–10
KCQ4 3:4420Turnover17–10
HOUQ4 3:32616Field goal20–10
KCQ4 0:30229End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud15/3120310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks26682.60
Dare Ogunbowale155.01
C.J. Stroud252.50
Nick Chubb133.00
Jaylin Noel111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins481210
Jayden Higgins35340
Dalton Schultz34220
Jaylin Noel22120
Woody Marks2381
Christian Kirk1360
Xavier Hutchinson0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes14/3316003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes7598.40
Kareem Hunt12302.51
Isiah Pacheco9303.30
Brashard Smith177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Worthy34550
Marquise Brown12350
Rashee Rice48340
Tyquan Thornton23190
Noah Gray13140
Travis Kelce1580
JuJu Smith-Schuster1250
Kareem Hunt0100
Patrick Mahomes11-100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.79