2024 · Week 16

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

19·27

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChiefs
  • -0.038EPA / play+0.071
  • 39.1%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.058
  • 8.3%Explosive rate5.8%
  • -2.77CPOE+2.51
  • 38.2%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.36
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC
2016 · W2KC @ HOU12–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–KC
HOUQ1 15:00513Turnover0–0
KCQ1 12:571276Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 6:31655Field goal3–7
KCQ1 3:083-3Punt3–7
HOUQ1 1:141382Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 10:091562Touchdown10–14
HOUQ2 4:38940Turnover10–14
KCQ2 0:52534Field goal10–17
HOUQ2 0:19323End of half10–17
KCQ3 15:00511Punt10–17
HOUQ3 13:16450Touchdown16–17
KCQ3 11:4049Turnover on downs16–17
HOUQ3 9:5431Punt16–17
KCQ3 8:261080Touchdown16–24
HOUQ3 2:421360Field goal19–24
KCQ4 11:511360Field goal19–27
HOUQ4 5:183-13Punt19–27
KCQ4 3:41548End of half19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud23/3924422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon14574.10
C.J. Stroud22311.50
Dameon Pierce144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tank Dell67981
Nico Collins710600
Dalton Schultz58451
Robert Woods36190
Joe Mixon12140
Xavier Hutchinson1180
Dare Ogunbowale0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes28/4126010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt11555.01
Patrick Mahomes5336.61
Isiah Pacheco9262.90
Xavier Worthy3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Worthy711651
Samaje Perine33500
Marquise Brown58450
DeAndre Hopkins44370
Travis Kelce57300
Kareem Hunt23240
Noah Gray11100
JuJu Smith-Schuster0100
Justin Watson0100
Isiah Pacheco12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.46