2017 · Week 5

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

42·34

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

KC -2

Total

45

Model margin

+3.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTexans
  • +0.082EPA / play-0.053
  • 44.2%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.126
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +4.58CPOE-2.95
  • 39.2%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.47
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2016 · W2KC @ HOU12–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–HOU
KCQ1 15:001464Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 6:53944Punt3–0
KCQ1 2:491065Field goal6–0
HOUQ2 11:2334Punt6–0
KCQ2 10:37957Touchdown13–0
HOUQ2 5:4527Turnover13–0
KCQ2 5:1233Field goal16–0
HOUQ2 4:17875Touchdown16–7
KCQ2 1:49961Touchdown23–7
HOUQ2 0:34516End of half23–7
HOUQ3 15:003-2Punt23–7
KCQ3 12:51839Punt23–7
HOUQ3 7:18847Touchdown23–13
KCQ3 3:20958Field goal26–13
HOUQ4 14:01570Touchdown26–20
KCQ4 12:00670Touchdown32–20
HOUQ4 8:5735Opp touchdown39–20
KCQ4 7:2200Opp touchdown39–20
HOUQ4 7:22514Punt39–20
KCQ4 5:19528Punt39–20
HOUQ4 3:21337Touchdown39–26
KCQ4 2:5735Field goal42–26
HOUQ4 1:08575Touchdown42–34

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith29/3732430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt291073.70
Alex Smith5193.80
Charcandrick West111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce811980
Tyreek Hill46680
Chris Conley33460
Ross Travis22260
Demetrius Harris33210
Albert Wilson23180
Demarcus Robinson11160
Charcandrick West22122
De'Anthony Thomas11101
Kareem Hunt3490

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/3126150

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller15744.90
D'Onta Foreman4348.50
Deshaun Watson33110.30
Will Fuller155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stephen Anderson22630
Will Fuller23572
DeAndre Hopkins412523
Bruce Ellington23300
Ryan Griffin24220
Chris Thompson11190
Lamar Miller23150
D'Onta Foreman1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.94
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.50