Closing spread
KC -2
Total
45
Model margin
+3.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play-0.053
- 44.2%Success rate40.4%
- +0.170EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +4.58CPOE-2.95
- 39.2%Third-down rate36.6%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
- 2.21Points / drive1.47
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 29/37 | 324 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 29 | 107 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/31 | 261 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 63 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 3 | 57 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 12 | 52 | 3 |
| Bruce Ellington | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.26
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.94
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.50