Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.135
- 45.6%Success rate47.0%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.247
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.12CPOE+1.86
- 43.7%Third-down rate48.7%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.18Points / drive2.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 30/42 | 280 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 26 | 116 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Fells | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 12 | 55 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 19/35 | 273 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 10 | 80 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.91