2019 · Week 6

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

31·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 56°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapChiefs
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.135
  • 45.6%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.247
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.12CPOE+1.86
  • 43.7%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.18Points / drive2.59
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. KC are 9-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC
2016 · W2KC @ HOU12–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–KC
KCQ1 15:008116Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 11:421-7Turnover0–7
KCQ1 11:3645Field goal0–10
HOUQ1 10:191149Field goal3–10
KCQ1 5:461175Touchdown3–17
HOUQ1 1:281075Touchdown9–17
KCQ2 12:15834Turnover9–17
HOUQ2 8:421280Touchdown16–17
KCQ2 3:06636Missed field goal16–17
HOUQ2 1:39715Turnover16–17
KCQ2 0:321-17Turnover22–17
HOUQ2 0:2313Touchdown23–17
KCQ2 0:1600End of half23–17
HOUQ3 15:00947Missed field goal23–17
KCQ3 10:551064Touchdown23–24
HOUQ3 6:301265Turnover23–24
KCQ3 0:0430Punt23–24
HOUQ4 14:4916103Touchdown31–24
KCQ4 6:173-3Punt31–24
HOUQ4 5:03744End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson30/4228012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde261164.51
Deshaun Watson10424.22
Duke Johnson5346.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Fells67690
DeAndre Hopkins912550
Will Fuller59440
Jordan Akins33390
Keke Coutee46390
Duke Johnson24201
Carlos Hyde11140

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes19/3527331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy8445.50
Damien Williams166.00
De'Anthony Thomas144.00
Patrick Mahomes1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill510802
Travis Kelce46580
Darrel Williams12520
Mecole Hardman44450
Byron Pringle24240
Damien Williams11141
LeSean McCoy2200
De'Anthony Thomas0100
Blake Bell0100
Demarcus Robinson0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.91