Closing spread
KC -14.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-3.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.167
- 50.6%Success rate38.0%
- +0.273EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.204
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.02CPOE-4.69
- 49.4%Third-down rate30.1%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 2.71Points / drive1.17
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 36/41 | 336 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 10 | 105 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 8 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 12/24 | 121 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2/4 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.25