2022 · Week 15

Final / OT

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

30·24

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

KC -14.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-3.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTexans
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.167
  • 50.6%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback-0.147
  • -0.019EPA / rush-0.204
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.02CPOE-4.69
  • 49.4%Third-down rate30.1%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.17
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC
2016 · W2KC @ HOU12–19HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:08729Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:4830Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:243-4Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:431266Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 1:01775Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 12:27615Punt7–7
KCQ2 9:3710Turnover7–7
HOUQ2 9:31217Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 9:1939Punt7–14
HOUQ2 7:28528Punt7–14
KCQ2 4:0613108Touchdown13–14
HOUQ2 0:1400End of half13–14
KCQ3 15:00967Field goal16–14
HOUQ3 9:0530Punt16–14
KCQ3 8:43636Turnover16–14
HOUQ3 5:431028Touchdown16–21
KCQ3 1:25976Touchdown24–21
HOUQ4 11:571551Field goal24–24
KCQ4 5:111044Missed field goal24–24
HOUQ4 0:0800End of half24–24
KCOT736Punt24–24
HOUOT12Turnover30–24
KCOT126Touchdown30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes36/4133620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco15865.70
Jerick McKinnon10525.21
Patrick Mahomes5336.61
Skyy Moore2126.00
Ronald Jones166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce10101050
JuJu Smith-Schuster1010880
Jerick McKinnon88701
Noah Gray33310
Marquez Valdes-Scantling35261
Isiah Pacheco11110
Kadarius Toney1150
Justin Watson0200
Joseph Fortson0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills12/2412120
Jeff Driskel2/4800
Phillip Dorsett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman11514.60
Davis Mills5214.21
Dare Ogunbowale8141.80
Jeff Driskel482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Moore48420
Amari Rodgers24260
Jordan Akins36221
Rex Burkhead24170
Brevin Jordan1190
Teagan Quitoriano1281
Royce Freeman1150
Phillip Dorsett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.25