Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.131
- 40.9%Success rate39.5%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.097
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.183
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- 35.3%Third-down rate32.4%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
- 1.48Points / drive1.22
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| CLE | Q1 13:27 | 1 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q1 13:09 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| CLE | Q1 12:15 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| MIA | Q1 7:03 | 11 | 56 | Punt | 0–9 |
| CLE | Q1 0:33 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 0–9 |
| MIA | Q2 10:38 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 0–9 |
| CLE | Q2 5:58 | 13 | 57 | Field goal | 0–12 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 41 | Punt | 0–12 |
| MIA | Q3 8:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–12 |
| CLE | Q3 7:31 | 5 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–19 |
| MIA | Q3 5:24 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–19 |
| CLE | Q3 5:10 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 0–22 |
| MIA | Q3 1:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–22 |
| CLE | Q4 14:43 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–22 |
| MIA | Q4 14:35 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–22 |
| CLE | Q4 13:53 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–22 |
| MIA | Q4 9:47 | 19 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 0–22 |
| CLE | Q4 3:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–22 |
| MIA | Q4 3:25 | 5 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 0–22 |
| CLE | Q4 2:09 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 0–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 4/18 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 5/10 | 14 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 13 | 83 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 11/18 | 137 | 1 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 6/11 | 58 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 30 | 166 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.73
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.24