Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play-0.176
- 42.1%Success rate35.2%
- -0.016EPA / dropback-0.212
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.115
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.1%
- +1.82CPOE-5.66
- 34.1%Third-down rate33.8%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.92Points / drive1.18
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 12/23 | 100 | 0 | 3 |
| Quinn Ewers | 5/8 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Quinn Ewers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Eskridge | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 13/18 | 116 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 25 | 84 | 3.4 | 3 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Gage Larvadain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.56
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.44