2025 · Week 7

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

6·31

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dillon Gabriel

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.021EPA / play-0.176
  • 42.1%Success rate35.2%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback-0.212
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.115
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +1.82CPOE-5.66
  • 34.1%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.18
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17MIA @ CLE20–3MIA
2022 · W10CLE @ MIA17–39MIA
2019 · W12MIA @ CLE24–41CLE
2016 · W3CLE @ MIA24–30MIA
2013 · W1MIA @ CLE23–10MIA
2011 · W3MIA @ CLE16–17CLE
2010 · W13CLE @ MIA13–10CLE
2007 · W6MIA @ CLE31–41CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:37621Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:001242Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 2:17562Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 14:14669Touchdown3–10
MIAQ2 11:1900Touchdown3–10
CLEQ2 11:131031Touchdown3–17
MIAQ2 6:036-1Punt3–17
CLEQ2 4:043-9Punt3–17
MIAQ2 2:53834Field goal6–17
MIAQ3 15:0010Opp touchdown6–24
MIAQ3 14:483-9Punt6–24
CLEQ3 12:3536Punt6–24
MIAQ3 10:231264Turnover on downs6–24
CLEQ3 3:131037Punt6–24
MIAQ4 12:2832Turnover6–30
CLEQ4 10:5912Touchdown6–31
MIAQ4 10:56211Turnover6–31
CLEQ4 9:5834Punt6–31
MIAQ4 8:163-2Punt6–31
CLEQ4 6:45518Punt6–31
MIAQ4 3:41937Turnover on downs6–31
CLEQ4 0:3700End of half6–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa12/2310003
Quinn Ewers5/85300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane13826.30
Ollie Gordon II5112.20
Tua Tagovailoa362.00
Quinn Ewers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dee Eskridge22450
Malik Washington58300
Tanner Conner13280
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine34160
De'Von Achane35160
Jaylen Waddle14150
Ollie Gordon II1220
Julian Hill1210

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dillon Gabriel13/1811600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins25843.43
Dillon Gabriel4123.00
Dylan Sampson382.70
Jerome Ford100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harold Fannin Jr.45360
Jamari Thrash12230
Jerry Jeudy24170
Malachi Corley22170
Jerome Ford22100
Dylan Sampson1190
Blake Whiteheart1140
Gage Larvadain0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.56
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.44