Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
49
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Browns
- OutDavid NjokuTEAnkle· DNP
- OutJeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMichael DunnGBack· Limited
- LimitedWyatt TellerGCalf
Dolphins
- OutHunter LongTEConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAustin JacksonTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTanner ConnerTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTeddy BridgewaterQBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTerron ArmsteadTToe· DNP
- QuestionableTrent SherfieldWRToe
- DNPXavien HowardCBNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedDurham SmytheTEHamstring
- LimitedRaekwon DavisDTKnee
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.054
- 44.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.111
- +0.002EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.05CPOE+0.08
- 39.0%Third-down rate37.6%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.91Points / drive2.11
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. MIA are 3-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 45 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:13 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 6:13 | 12 | 44 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q1 0:13 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q2 11:05 | 9 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q2 5:35 | 7 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q2 2:08 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q2 1:22 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| CLE | Q2 0:32 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| CLE | Q3 11:35 | 11 | 41 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| MIA | Q3 6:56 | 13 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–30 |
| CLE | Q3 0:37 | 7 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–30 |
| MIA | Q4 13:09 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 17–33 |
| CLE | Q4 8:15 | 4 | -5 | Turnover on downs | 17–39 |
| MIA | Q4 7:13 | 1 | 20 | Touchdown | 17–39 |
| CLE | Q4 7:07 | 12 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 17–39 |
| MIA | Q4 4:05 | 4 | 28 | End of half | 17–39 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/35 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 5 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| David Bell | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25/32 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 17 | 119 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 65 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+1.34