Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.091
- 39.0%Success rate40.3%
- +0.032EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.151
- 10.5%Explosive rate5.4%
- +2.28CPOE-4.62
- 33.1%Third-down rate38.1%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.63Points / drive1.09
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 19/29 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 23 | 95 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 4 | 4 | 87 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 19/39 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montario Hardesty | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Armond Smith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Greg Little | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.82