2011 · Week 3

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

16·17

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.091
  • 39.0%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.151
  • 10.5%Explosive rate5.4%
  • +2.28CPOE-4.62
  • 33.1%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 53.6%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.09
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7MIA @ CLE6–31CLE
2024 · W17MIA @ CLE20–3MIA
2022 · W10CLE @ MIA17–39MIA
2019 · W12MIA @ CLE24–41CLE
2016 · W3CLE @ MIA24–30MIA
2013 · W1MIA @ CLE23–10MIA
2010 · W13CLE @ MIA13–10CLE
2007 · W6MIA @ CLE31–41CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CLE
MIAQ1 15:00529Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:58625Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 10:05443Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 8:0930Punt7–0
MIAQ1 7:121147Turnover7–0
CLEQ1 1:0432Punt7–0
MIAQ2 14:49836Missed field goal7–0
CLEQ2 9:59664Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 7:1634Punt7–7
CLEQ2 5:4349Punt7–7
MIAQ2 4:051075Field goal10–7
CLEQ2 0:2700End of half10–7
CLEQ3 15:00873Field goal10–10
MIAQ3 10:371475Field goal13–10
CLEQ3 2:29922Punt13–10
MIAQ4 14:46936Punt13–10
CLEQ4 9:37812Punt13–10
MIAQ4 6:20724Field goal16–10
CLEQ4 3:231475Touchdown16–17
MIAQ4 0:4340Turnover16–17
CLEQ4 0:1300End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne19/2925511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas23954.10
Chad Henne4266.50
Reggie Bush10131.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline44870
Davone Bess59520
Brandon Marshall47430
Daniel Thomas33271
Anthony Fasano12260
Reggie Bush11120
Clyde Gates0100
Charles Clay0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy19/3921021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montario Hardesty14674.80
Owen Marecic133.00
Armond Smith221.00
Colt McCoy2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson510640
Josh Cribbs36491
Mohamed Massaquoi26261
Greg Little35240
Evan Moore23190
Montario Hardesty34190
Alex Smith1490
Brian Robiskie0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.31
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.82