2019 · Week 12

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

24·41

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CLE -11

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.027
  • 41.5%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.002EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.268EPA / rush-0.116
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.66CPOE-3.23
  • 35.1%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.80
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7MIA @ CLE6–31CLE
2024 · W17MIA @ CLE20–3MIA
2022 · W10CLE @ MIA17–39MIA
2016 · W3CLE @ MIA24–30MIA
2013 · W1MIA @ CLE23–10MIA
2011 · W3MIA @ CLE16–17CLE
2010 · W13CLE @ MIA13–10CLE
2007 · W6MIA @ CLE31–41CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001172Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 9:593-7Punt0–7
CLEQ1 8:39642Punt0–7
MIAQ1 5:3631Punt0–7
CLEQ1 4:45555Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 1:51620Turnover on downs0–14
CLEQ2 14:10834Touchdown0–21
MIAQ2 10:31944Turnover0–21
CLEQ2 5:461063Touchdown0–28
MIAQ2 1:01763Field goal3–28
MIAQ3 15:0034Punt3–28
CLEQ3 14:04320Turnover3–28
MIAQ3 12:34746Touchdown10–28
CLEQ3 9:37948Missed field goal10–28
MIAQ3 4:041149Touchdown17–28
CLEQ3 0:041038Field goal17–31
MIAQ4 11:2141Punt17–31
CLEQ4 9:48767Field goal17–34
MIAQ4 6:513-10Turnover17–34
CLEQ4 5:48529Touchdown17–41
MIAQ4 3:26773Touchdown24–41
CLEQ4 0:3900End of half24–41

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3921422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Fitzpatrick5459.01
Patrick Laird3206.70
Kalen Ballage7131.90
Myles Gaskin4102.50
Albert Wilson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker611910
Allen Hurns47421
Albert Wilson67330
Mike Gesicki37281
Kalen Ballage11130
Myles Gaskin1170
Jakeem Grant0100
Durham Smythe0200
Patrick Laird0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield24/3432731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb211065.01
Kareem Hunt8374.61
Baker Mayfield252.50
Garrett Gilbert1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry10131482
Odell Beckham Jr.68841
Nick Chubb33580
Demetrius Harris22200
Kareem Hunt2390
Stephen Carlson1180
Rashard Higgins0100
Ricky Seals-Jones0100
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +117.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.22