Closing spread
CLE -11
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.027
- 41.5%Success rate41.3%
- +0.002EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.268EPA / rush-0.116
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.66CPOE-3.23
- 35.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.62Points / drive1.80
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/39 | 214 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 24/34 | 327 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Garrett Gilbert | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 10 | 13 | 148 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Carlson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.22