2013 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

23·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.075
  • 41.1%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.009EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -0.18CPOE-3.79
  • 35.5%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.27
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7MIA @ CLE6–31CLE
2024 · W17MIA @ CLE20–3MIA
2022 · W10CLE @ MIA17–39MIA
2019 · W12MIA @ CLE24–41CLE
2016 · W3CLE @ MIA24–30MIA
2011 · W3MIA @ CLE16–17CLE
2010 · W13CLE @ MIA13–10CLE
2007 · W6MIA @ CLE31–41CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00840Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 11:1436Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:4830Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:461453Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 1:2938Turnover3–0
MIAQ1 0:103-4Field goal6–0
CLEQ2 13:37416Punt6–0
MIAQ2 11:183-3Punt6–0
CLEQ2 8:33222Turnover6–0
MIAQ2 8:05838Turnover6–0
CLEQ2 4:131459Touchdown6–7
MIAQ2 0:2800End of half6–7
MIAQ3 15:003-1Punt6–7
CLEQ3 13:5435Punt6–7
MIAQ3 12:05627Punt6–7
CLEQ3 10:133-8Punt6–7
MIAQ3 8:56551Touchdown13–7
CLEQ3 6:46859Field goal13–10
MIAQ3 3:02621Punt13–10
CLEQ3 0:37727Punt13–10
MIAQ4 11:541181Touchdown20–10
CLEQ4 6:4840Turnover on downs20–10
MIAQ4 5:3337Field goal23–10
CLEQ4 3:591963Turnover on downs23–10
MIAQ4 1:1300End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill24/3827211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas8141.81
Lamar Miller1030.30
Ryan Tannehill530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline9141141
Brandon Gibson710770
Charles Clay56540
Mike Wallace15150
Lamar Miller1170
Daniel Thomas1150

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden26/5328913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson13473.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron9131081
Davone Bess510470
Travis Benjamin38440
Trent Richardson26300
Greg Little410260
Tori Gurley12150
Chris Ogbonnaya13100
Gary Barnidge1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.42