Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.075
- 41.1%Success rate39.2%
- +0.009EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.18CPOE-3.79
- 35.5%Third-down rate34.9%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.51Points / drive1.27
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 24/38 | 272 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 9 | 14 | 114 | 1 |
| Brandon Gibson | 7 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 26/53 | 289 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 9 | 13 | 108 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 4 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Tori Gurley | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.42