2024 · Week 17

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tyler Huntley

20·3

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

32.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.179
  • 44.3%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.196
  • -0.246EPA / rush-0.140
  • 7.3%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +3.08CPOE-4.22
  • 35.4%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.09
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7MIA @ CLE6–31CLE
2022 · W10CLE @ MIA17–39MIA
2019 · W12MIA @ CLE24–41CLE
2016 · W3CLE @ MIA24–30MIA
2013 · W1MIA @ CLE23–10MIA
2011 · W3MIA @ CLE16–17CLE
2010 · W13CLE @ MIA13–10CLE
2007 · W6MIA @ CLE31–41CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CLE
MIAQ1 15:00745Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:4934Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:25736Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 5:461461Field goal3–3
MIAQ2 13:26426Punt3–3
CLEQ2 11:2030Punt3–3
MIAQ2 10:56417Punt3–3
CLEQ2 8:00737Turnover3–3
MIAQ2 4:3346Punt3–3
CLEQ2 1:48620Turnover on downs3–3
MIAQ2 0:40428Field goal6–3
CLEQ3 15:0034Punt6–3
MIAQ3 14:09657Touchdown13–3
CLEQ3 11:0432Punt13–3
MIAQ3 10:0131Punt13–3
CLEQ3 8:1269Turnover13–3
MIAQ3 5:2347Turnover on downs13–3
CLEQ3 3:181150Turnover on downs13–3
MIAQ4 14:1135Punt13–3
CLEQ4 12:5247Punt13–3
MIAQ4 11:05832Punt13–3
CLEQ4 5:35729Turnover on downs13–3
MIAQ4 3:56421Touchdown20–3
CLEQ4 3:381253Turnover on downs20–3
MIAQ4 0:1800End of half20–3

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley22/2622510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Huntley7527.41
De'Von Achane10252.50
Jeff Wilson351.70
Raheem Mostert630.50
Malik Washington1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill991050
Malik Washington45410
Jonnu Smith34261
Raheem Mostert22160
River Cracraft11160
De'Von Achane22130
Dee Eskridge1180

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dorian Thompson-Robinson24/4717001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman13493.80
Pierre Strong5336.60
Jerome Ford6223.70
Dorian Thompson-Robinson4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy1218940
Jordan Akins68490
Pierre Strong35150
Blake Whiteheart1180
Mike Woods1330
Elijah Moore1510
D'Onta Foreman0200
Jamari Thrash0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

6.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.60
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.70