Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
32.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.179
- 44.3%Success rate37.1%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.196
- -0.246EPA / rush-0.140
- 7.3%Explosive rate5.8%
- +3.08CPOE-4.22
- 35.4%Third-down rate28.8%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.92Points / drive1.09
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 22/26 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 9 | 105 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 24/47 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 12 | 18 | 94 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+5.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.70