Closing spread
MIA -10
Total
42
Model margin
+4.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.004
- 39.2%Success rate42.2%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.42CPOE+4.52
- 36.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.37Points / drive1.80
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. MIA are 3-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 21/33 | 244 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 3/5 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 8 | 14 | 144 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 25/39 | 319 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Pead | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 12 | 120 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Dion Sims | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.42