2016 · Week 3

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Cody Kessler

24·30

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIA -10

Total

42

Model margin

+4.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.004
  • 39.2%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.092
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.42CPOE+4.52
  • 36.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.80
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. MIA are 3-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7MIA @ CLE6–31CLE
2024 · W17MIA @ CLE20–3MIA
2022 · W10CLE @ MIA17–39MIA
2019 · W12MIA @ CLE24–41CLE
2013 · W1MIA @ CLE23–10MIA
2011 · W3MIA @ CLE16–17CLE
2010 · W13CLE @ MIA13–10CLE
2007 · W6MIA @ CLE31–41CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 14:203-1Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 12:53561Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 10:16652Missed field goal0–7
MIAQ1 6:54613Punt0–7
CLEQ1 3:351043Field goal3–7
MIAQ2 13:32310Punt3–7
CLEQ2 11:06522Punt3–7
MIAQ2 8:1037Opp touchdown10–7
MIAQ2 6:47961Field goal10–10
CLEQ2 1:57860Field goal13–10
MIAQ2 0:42648End of half13–10
CLEQ3 15:001166Missed field goal13–10
MIAQ3 7:27563Touchdown13–17
CLEQ3 5:1744Punt13–17
MIAQ3 2:33664Touchdown13–24
CLEQ4 14:171175Touchdown21–24
MIAQ4 10:1238Punt21–24
CLEQ4 8:2230Punt21–24
MIAQ4 8:04513Punt21–24
CLEQ4 6:17779Field goal24–24
MIAQ4 3:1431Punt24–24
CLEQ4 2:09517Punt24–24
MIAQ4 0:42311Turnover24–24
CLEQ4 0:2000Missed field goal24–24
MIAOT422Punt24–24
CLEOT714Punt24–24
MIAOT344Touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler21/3324400
Terrelle Pryor3/53500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell15795.30
Duke Johnson10696.90
Terrelle Pryor4215.31
Andrew Hawkins111.00
Cody Kessler2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrelle Pryor8141440
Gary Barnidge56660
Ricardo Louis34400
Andrew Hawkins24140
Duke Johnson57120
Malcolm Johnson1130
Isaiah Crowell0100
Rashard Higgins0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill25/3931932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake9374.10
Jay Ajayi7284.01
Isaiah Pead5173.40
Jarvis Landry2168.00
Damien Williams11515.00
Ryan Tannehill122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry7121201
Kenny Stills58760
DeVante Parker36511
Dion Sims44460
Kenyan Drake22110
Damien Williams33101
Jordan Cameron1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.42