Closing spread
MIA -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.071
- 40.5%Success rate41.7%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.155
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.13CPOE-1.81
- 37.8%Third-down rate40.4%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.31Points / drive1.34
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. MIA are 3-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 24/34 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 10 | 11 | 100 | 1 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 4 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 7 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 16/32 | 174 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 6 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Roberto Wallace | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.43