2010 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jake Delhomme

13·10

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.071
  • 40.5%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.155
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.13CPOE-1.81
  • 37.8%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.34
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CLE lead 6–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39.5 points. MIA are 3-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7MIA @ CLE6–31CLE
2024 · W17MIA @ CLE20–3MIA
2022 · W10CLE @ MIA17–39MIA
2019 · W12MIA @ CLE24–41CLE
2016 · W3CLE @ MIA24–30MIA
2013 · W1MIA @ CLE23–10MIA
2011 · W3MIA @ CLE16–17CLE
2007 · W6MIA @ CLE31–41CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00962Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 9:3436Punt0–0
MIAQ1 7:41514Punt0–0
CLEQ1 5:16420Punt0–0
MIAQ1 3:09521Punt0–0
CLEQ1 0:17619Punt0–0
MIAQ2 12:3410Turnover0–0
CLEQ2 12:2234Punt0–0
MIAQ2 10:4445Punt0–0
CLEQ2 9:20517Punt0–0
MIAQ2 5:57539Turnover0–0
CLEQ2 3:24614Field goal3–0
MIAQ2 1:43819Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 0:0200End of half3–3
CLEQ3 15:0033Punt3–3
MIAQ3 13:15517Punt3–3
CLEQ3 11:05751Missed field goal3–3
MIAQ3 7:12517Punt3–3
CLEQ3 4:56694Touchdown10–3
MIAQ3 1:161180Touchdown10–10
CLEQ4 10:2732Punt10–10
MIAQ4 9:2534Punt10–10
CLEQ4 7:20419Punt10–10
MIAQ4 4:4232Punt10–10
CLEQ4 3:3968Punt10–10
MIAQ4 1:3431Turnover10–10
CLEQ4 0:5400Field goal13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme24/3421710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis18573.20
Jake Delhomme4-5-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson10111001
Mohamed Massaquoi47810
Peyton Hillis79220
Brian Robiskie22100
Chansi Stuckey1340

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne16/3217413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown16503.10
Ricky Williams10484.80
Chad Henne5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess69670
Anthony Fasano46411
Ronnie Brown22270
Ricky Williams24190
Patrick Cobbs11110
Roberto Wallace1390
Brian Hartline0400
Marlon Moore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.43