Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.059
- 40.6%Success rate42.0%
- -0.009EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.1%Explosive rate6.6%
- 33.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.46Points / drive1.29
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 10:05 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:37 | 7 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 2:16 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 14:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 13:23 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 12:02 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 9:08 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 5:29 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 2:59 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 2:03 | 4 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q2 1:04 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 0:26 | 4 | 13 | End of half | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q3 13:15 | 6 | 10 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| GB | Q3 10:43 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q3 9:19 | 15 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| GB | Q3 0:46 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–14 |
| MIN | Q4 13:35 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| GB | Q4 10:13 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| MIN | Q4 9:48 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 17–14 |
| GB | Q4 4:49 | 9 | 34 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| MIN | Q4 3:03 | 5 | 61 | Field goal | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/30 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 22 | 122 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/33 | 227 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 10 | 7 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81