Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.059
- 40.6%Success rate42.0%
- -0.009EPA / dropback-0.003
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.1%Explosive rate6.6%
- 33.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.46Points / drive1.29
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.028EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/30 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 22 | 122 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/33 | 227 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 10 | 7 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.81