Closing spread
NE -10
Total
45
Model margin
+5.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play+0.076
- 41.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.030EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.083
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- 38.7%Third-down rate42.3%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 1.11Points / drive1.91
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.032EPA / play allowed+0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 27/50 | 343 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/29 | 222 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Pass | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.13