Closing spread
NE -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutErik McCoyCCalf· DNP
- LimitedCalvin ThrockmortonTKnee
- LimitedPayton TurnerDEElbow
Patriots
- QuestionableAdrian PhillipsSNot injury related - personal matter· DNP
- QuestionableJosh UcheLBBack· Limited
- QuestionableTrenton BrownTCalf· Limited
Win probability
- Patriots
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.070
- 41.1%Success rate48.6%
- +0.003EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.0%Explosive rate11.1%
- -5.00CPOE+2.93
- 36.1%Third-down rate45.5%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.88Points / drive2.41
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:37 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:33 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:35 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 5:25 | 9 | 51 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 0:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 14:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 12:46 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 8:51 | 7 | 31 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| NE | Q2 4:13 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 2:44 | 3 | 9 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NE | Q2 1:44 | 5 | 53 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| NO | Q2 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–3 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–3 |
| NE | Q3 14:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–3 |
| NO | Q3 13:35 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 21–3 |
| NE | Q3 10:37 | 16 | 82 | Field goal | 21–6 |
| NO | Q3 1:32 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–6 |
| NE | Q4 15:00 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 21–6 |
| NO | Q4 12:38 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 21–6 |
| NE | Q4 10:28 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| NO | Q4 9:22 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| NE | Q4 2:37 | 15 | 50 | Turnover | 28–13 |
| NO | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 13/21 | 128 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 30/51 | 270 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 6 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 14 | 94 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| James White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.63