2013 · Week 6

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

27·30

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.115EPA / play+0.062
  • 47.2%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.209EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.36CPOE-1.37
  • 45.1%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 64.9%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.21Points / drive2.05
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6NE @ NO25–19NE
2023 · W5NO @ NE34–0NO
2021 · W3NO @ NE28–13NO
2017 · W2NE @ NO36–20NE
2009 · W12NE @ NO17–38NO
2005 · W11NO @ NE17–24NE
2001 · W11NO @ NE17–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NE
NEQ1 15:001360Field goal0–3
NOQ1 9:5431Punt0–3
NEQ1 8:5539Punt0–3
NOQ1 7:091083Touchdown7–3
NEQ1 1:461074Touchdown7–10
NOQ2 13:0030Punt7–10
NEQ2 12:281266Touchdown7–17
NOQ2 7:3637Punt7–17
NEQ2 6:1044Punt7–17
NOQ2 4:49739Punt7–17
NEQ2 1:53719Turnover on downs7–17
NOQ3 15:00770Field goal10–17
NEQ3 11:2747Punt10–17
NOQ3 10:26967Touchdown17–17
NEQ3 6:191150Field goal17–20
NOQ3 1:3634Punt17–20
NEQ3 0:313-2Punt17–20
NOQ4 13:433-2Turnover17–20
NEQ4 12:10715Field goal17–23
NOQ4 8:341191Touchdown24–23
NEQ4 3:2944Turnover on downs24–23
NOQ4 2:4633Field goal27–23
NEQ4 2:2410Turnover27–23
NOQ4 2:163-2Punt27–23
NEQ4 1:13770Touchdown27–30
NOQ4 0:0500Turnover27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees17/3623621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khiry Robinson7537.61
Pierre Thomas11514.60
Darren Sproles5153.00
Drew Brees2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills33641
Benjamin Watson34610
Darren Sproles612580
Pierre Thomas11290
Marques Colston13110
Nick Toon1470
Travaris Cadet1131
Robert Meachem0100
Jimmy Graham0600

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/4326911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley20964.82
Brandon Bolden5193.80
Tom Brady2168.00
LeGarrette Blount791.30
Danny Amendola111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Dobson610630
Julian Edelman511570
Michael Hoomanawanui44570
Kenbrell Thompkins36451
Austin Collie22240
Stevan Ridley11140
Brandon Bolden2390
Danny Amendola2400
LeGarrette Blount0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.47