Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.115EPA / play+0.062
- 47.2%Success rate46.7%
- +0.209EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.36CPOE-1.37
- 45.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 64.9%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.21Points / drive2.05
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 17/36 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 3 | 64 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 12 | 58 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Toon | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/43 | 269 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 20 | 96 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dobson | 6 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 11 | 57 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 3 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Austin Collie | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47