Closing spread
PK
Total
42
Model margin
+6.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.017
- 38.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- 38.8%Third-down rate41.6%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.58Points / drive1.32
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.009EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 11:35 | 4 | 8 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 9:15 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 7:03 | 9 | 68 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 4:05 | 11 | 43 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 13:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q2 11:29 | 9 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| NO | Q2 7:23 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NE | Q2 6:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NO | Q2 4:45 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NE | Q2 1:50 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| NO | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 14 | End of half | 0–20 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 45 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| NE | Q3 12:46 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 0–20 |
| NO | Q3 8:18 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| NE | Q3 6:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–20 |
| NO | Q3 4:46 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| NE | Q3 2:11 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| NO | Q4 13:24 | 13 | 88 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| NE | Q4 8:15 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–34 |
| NO | Q4 2:25 | 7 | 37 | Turnover | 17–34 |
| NE | Q4 0:54 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 17–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/39 | 307 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 7 | 65 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 4 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 5 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Albert Connell | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 2 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/26 | 258 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 7 | 8 | 91 | 1 |
| David Patten | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.57