Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play-0.076
- 48.2%Success rate42.4%
- +0.308EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.155
- 10.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- +10.94CPOE+1.72
- 43.3%Third-down rate39.4%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.47Points / drive1.53
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 18/26 | 261 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 18 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 5 | 5 | 93 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 4 | 71 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 20/26 | 227 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 10 | 98 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.20