2025 · Week 6

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

25·19

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSaints
  • +0.154EPA / play-0.076
  • 48.2%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.308EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.155
  • 10.5%Explosive rate5.5%
  • +10.94CPOE+1.72
  • 43.3%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.53
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 5–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W5NO @ NE34–0NO
2021 · W3NO @ NE28–13NO
2017 · W2NE @ NO36–20NE
2013 · W6NO @ NE27–30NE
2009 · W12NE @ NO17–38NO
2005 · W11NO @ NE17–24NE
2001 · W11NO @ NE17–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NO
NOQ1 15:00459Field goal0–3
NEQ1 12:50465Touchdown7–3
NOQ1 10:521148Field goal7–6
NEQ1 5:05953Touchdown14–6
NOQ1 0:331160Touchdown14–13
NEQ2 9:42726Turnover on downs14–13
NOQ2 5:50822Field goal14–16
NEQ2 1:51773Touchdown22–16
NOQ2 0:311-1End of half22–16
NEQ3 15:001155Field goal25–16
NOQ3 7:26731Punt25–16
NEQ3 4:1639Punt25–16
NOQ3 2:37725Field goal25–19
NEQ4 13:41818Punt25–19
NOQ4 9:27224Turnover25–19
NEQ4 8:4368Punt25–19
NOQ4 5:51528Punt25–19
NEQ4 3:43530End of half25–19

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye18/2626130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drake Maye9283.10
TreVeyon Henderson9273.00
Rhamondre Stevenson13181.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kayshon Boutte55932
DeMario Douglas34711
Stefon Diggs33280
Mack Hollins23280
Hunter Henry33270
TreVeyon Henderson1290
Austin Hooper1150
Rhamondre Stevenson0100
Kyle Williams0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler20/2622700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara10313.10
Kendre Miller8212.60
Spencer Rattler4205.00
Taysom Hill111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave610980
Alvin Kamara55450
Rashid Shaheed46280
Brandin Cooks11210
Juwan Johnson22150
Kendre Miller11110
Foster Moreau1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.20