Closing spread
NO -1
Total
57
Model margin
+2.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.118
- 49.1%Success rate48.1%
- +0.223EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.43CPOE+6.47
- 44.2%Third-down rate45.6%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 2.12Points / drive2.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/36 | 237 | 0 | 2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2/4 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Aiken | 7 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Stanback | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/23 | 371 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 4 | 5 | 121 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 5 | 116 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Darnell Dinkins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26