Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
55
Model margin
+0.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play+0.092
- 49.2%Success rate45.3%
- +0.254EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.042EPA / rush+0.026
- 9.4%Explosive rate12.4%
- +3.49CPOE+4.74
- 40.8%Third-down rate38.5%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 2.52Points / drive2.37
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/39 | 447 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 9 | 116 | 1 |
| James White | 8 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 5 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 3 | 68 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 27/45 | 356 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 4 | 6 | 82 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+0.02