Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutJuwan JohnsonTECalf· DNP
- OutLandon YoungTHip· DNP
- OutLonnie JohnsonSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAndrus PeatGConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableDerek CarrQBright Shoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJames HurstGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionablePaulson AdeboCBHamstring· Limited
- DNPJimmy GrahamTENot injury related - resting player
Patriots
- QuestionableChristian BarmoreDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableChristian GonzalezCBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableCody DavisSKnee· Limited
- QuestionableCole StrangeGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDavon GodchauxDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan JonesCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMatt JudonLBElbow· DNP
- QuestionableRhamondre StevensonRBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableRiley ReiffTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableShaun WadeCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTrenton BrownTChest· Limited
- QuestionableTrey FlowersDEFoot· Limited
- LimitedTy MontgomeryRBIllness
Win probability
- Patriots
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.189
- 42.2%Success rate38.9%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.5%
- +1.94CPOE-3.39
- 39.4%Third-down rate30.8%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.82Points / drive1.00
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:21 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:25 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:49 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:02 | 6 | 34 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 3:39 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NE | Q2 14:23 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 13:22 | 5 | 59 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| NE | Q2 10:47 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 21–0 |
| NO | Q2 6:44 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 21–0 |
| NE | Q2 1:03 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 21–0 |
| NO | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–0 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 21–0 |
| NO | Q3 14:00 | 3 | -1 | Field goal | 24–0 |
| NE | Q3 11:34 | 4 | 35 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NO | Q3 9:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NE | Q3 7:52 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NO | Q3 6:39 | 11 | 42 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NE | Q3 1:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–0 |
| NO | Q3 1:07 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 31–0 |
| NE | Q4 13:03 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 31–0 |
| NO | Q4 11:36 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 31–0 |
| NE | Q4 8:59 | 5 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 31–0 |
| NO | Q4 7:15 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 34–0 |
| NE | Q4 5:43 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 34–0 |
| NO | Q4 4:07 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 34–0 |
| NE | Q4 2:16 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 34–0 |
| NO | Q4 1:50 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 18/26 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 22 | 80 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kendre Miller | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 2 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 12/22 | 110 | 0 | 2 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3/9 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.25