Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.189
- 42.2%Success rate38.9%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.0%Explosive rate5.5%
- +1.94CPOE-3.39
- 39.4%Third-down rate30.8%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.82Points / drive1.00
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NE are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 18/26 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 22 | 80 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kendre Miller | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 2 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 12/22 | 110 | 0 | 2 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3/9 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.25