Closing spread
DEN -13
Total
41
Model margin
+6.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play+0.088
- 40.1%Success rate44.7%
- -0.093EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.171EPA / rush+0.067
- 5.7%Explosive rate9.5%
- 35.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.30Points / drive1.97
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 15/25 | 152 | 0 | 2 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 4/5 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | 1/2 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/26 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 26 | 113 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Tatum Bell | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Charlie Adams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.20