Closing spread
SEA -12
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.203
- 49.3%Success rate34.0%
- +0.205EPA / dropback-0.265
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.129
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- 40.1%Third-down rate25.0%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 2.39Points / drive0.94
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 77 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:03 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q1 4:03 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SF | Q1 1:31 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q1 0:16 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| SF | Q2 13:09 | 5 | 50 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q2 10:07 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| SF | Q2 6:28 | 9 | 15 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| SEA | Q2 2:00 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 17–9 |
| SF | Q2 0:34 | 3 | 13 | End of half | 17–9 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–9 |
| SEA | Q3 13:39 | 9 | 46 | Missed field goal | 17–9 |
| SF | Q3 8:51 | 4 | 54 | Field goal | 17–12 |
| SEA | Q3 6:24 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 24–12 |
| SF | Q3 3:51 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 24–12 |
| SEA | Q3 3:41 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 27–12 |
| SF | Q3 2:23 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 27–19 |
| SEA | Q4 14:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 27–19 |
| SF | Q4 12:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 27–19 |
| SEA | Q4 10:45 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 27–19 |
| SF | Q4 9:47 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 27–19 |
| SEA | Q4 7:46 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 27–19 |
| SF | Q4 6:07 | 13 | 86 | Touchdown | 27–25 |
| SEA | Q4 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/31 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 24 | 115 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 18/29 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Hicks | 11 | 83 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
0.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.76