Closing spread
SEA -12
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.203
- 49.3%Success rate34.0%
- +0.205EPA / dropback-0.265
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.129
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- 40.1%Third-down rate25.0%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 2.39Points / drive0.94
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/31 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 24 | 115 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 18/29 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Hicks | 11 | 83 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
0.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.76