Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.013
- 46.0%Success rate44.4%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.044
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.77CPOE+4.61
- 43.1%Third-down rate37.5%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.24Points / drive1.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 18/28 | 255 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Guerendo | 10 | 99 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 5 | 102 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 6 | 58 | 2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 30/52 | 312 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 8 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
6.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52