2024 · Week 6 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

36·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+2.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.013
  • 46.0%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.044
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.126
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.77CPOE+4.61
  • 43.1%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.24Points / drive1.82
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF
2022 · playoffsSEA @ SF23–41SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00639Turnover0–0
SFQ1 11:261290Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 3:58615Punt3–0
SFQ1 1:4338Punt3–0
SEAQ1 0:1238Punt9–0
SFQ2 13:42176Touchdown10–0
SEAQ2 13:3000Field goal10–0
SFQ2 13:2336Field goal13–0
SEAQ2 11:47512Punt13–0
SFQ2 10:161364Field goal16–0
SEAQ2 2:331159Field goal16–3
SFQ3 15:00970Touchdown23–9
SEAQ3 10:0700Touchdown23–10
SFQ3 9:54529Punt23–10
SEAQ3 7:021394Touchdown23–17
SFQ3 1:2437Punt23–17
SEAQ4 14:51512Punt23–17
SFQ4 12:38738Punt23–17
SEAQ4 9:27522Turnover23–17
SFQ4 7:46415Touchdown29–17
SEAQ4 6:201680Touchdown29–24
SFQ4 1:44381Touchdown36–24
SEAQ4 1:17717Turnover on downs36–24
SFQ4 0:1100End of half36–24

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy18/2825530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Guerendo10999.90
Jordan Mason9738.10
Brock Purdy4194.80
Patrick Taylor5163.20
Deebo Samuel Sr.4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.351021
George Kittle56582
Brandon Aiyuk24370
Jauan Jennings35270
Patrick Taylor11120
Jordan Mason1290

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith30/5231212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III14322.31
Zach Charbonnet5204.00
Geno Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett48651
Noah Fant66630
Jaxon Smith-Njigba59530
DK Metcalf311480
Kenneth Walker III88370
Jake Bobo24180
Zach Charbonnet11150
AJ Barner11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

6.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.52