Closing spread
SF -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.032
- 51.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.094
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.087
- 13.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.51CPOE+1.54
- 48.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
- 2.69Points / drive2.00
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/30 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 114 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/27 | 180 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.4%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.12