2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

31·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.179EPA / play+0.032
  • 51.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.094
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.087
  • 13.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +4.51CPOE+1.54
  • 48.1%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
  • 2.69Points / drive2.00
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2022 · playoffsSEA @ SF23–41SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SFQ1 15:00971Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 10:0131Field goal7–3
SFQ1 9:07748Punt7–3
SEAQ1 5:013-1Punt7–3
SFQ1 3:021040Touchdown14–3
SEAQ2 13:11210Turnover14–3
SFQ2 12:353-2Punt14–3
SEAQ2 10:2939Punt14–3
SFQ2 9:10858Touchdown21–3
SEAQ2 5:113-4Punt21–3
SFQ2 3:0932Punt21–3
SFQ2 1:4738Field goal24–3
SEAQ2 0:39441Missed field goal24–3
SEAQ3 15:00733Punt24–3
SFQ3 11:3420Opp touchdown24–10
SFQ3 11:2339Punt24–10
SEAQ3 9:411478Field goal24–13
SFQ3 3:13638Punt24–13
SEAQ4 14:52612Punt24–13
SFQ4 11:22664Touchdown31–13
SEAQ4 7:511141Turnover on downs31–13
SFQ4 4:14443End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy21/3020911
Deebo Samuel Sr.0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey191146.02
Elijah Mitchell7395.60
Deebo Samuel Sr.4153.81
Brock Purdy310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.79790
Brandon Aiyuk24501
Christian McCaffrey56250
Ray-Ray McCloud11230
George Kittle35190
Charlie Woerner1190
Jauan Jennings1270
Elijah Mitchell11-30

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith18/2718001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet14473.40
Geno Smith4215.30
DeeJay Dallas2105.00
Dee Eskridge11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba23410
DK Metcalf39320
Tyler Lockett35300
Noah Fant22250
Will Dissly11210
Zach Charbonnet44110
Colby Parkinson1190
Jake Bobo1160
DeeJay Dallas1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.4%

Expected total

48.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.12