Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.036
- 48.5%Success rate46.6%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- +5.72CPOE+4.54
- 50.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.48Points / drive2.22
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 26/35 | 277 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Pearsall | 4 | 7 | 108 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/23 | 150 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Milroe | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 9 | 13 | 124 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41