2025 · Week 1 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

17·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.036
  • 48.5%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +5.72CPOE+4.54
  • 50.4%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.22
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF
2022 · playoffsSEA @ SF23–41SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:051585Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 3:431151Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 13:3835Punt7–7
SEAQ2 12:063-1Punt7–7
SFQ2 11:04518Punt7–7
SEAQ2 8:043-1Punt7–7
SFQ2 6:061158Missed field goal7–7
SEAQ2 0:57650Field goal7–10
SFQ2 0:0200End of half7–10
SFQ3 15:00536Turnover7–10
SEAQ3 12:0637Punt7–10
SFQ3 10:351457Missed field goal7–10
SEAQ3 2:14526Turnover7–10
SFQ4 14:501152Field goal10–10
SEAQ4 9:423-6Punt10–10
SFQ4 8:1037Turnover10–10
SEAQ4 7:06734Field goal10–13
SFQ4 3:24768Touchdown17–13
SEAQ4 1:34647Turnover17–13
SFQ4 0:3600End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy26/3527722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey22693.10
Brian Robinson9333.70
Brock Purdy5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Pearsall471080
Christian McCaffrey910730
George Kittle44251
Jauan Jennings25160
Jake Tonges33151
Luke Farrell1140
Brian Robinson1240

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2315000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet12473.91
Kenneth Walker III10202.00
Sam Darnold2147.00
AJ Barner122.00
Jalen Milroe111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba9131240
Cooper Kupp23150
Elijah Arroyo1170
Kenneth Walker III3340
AJ Barner1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.41