2026 · Week 5 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

32·29

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Drew Lock

Lumen Field · outdoors

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.153EPA / play-0.042
  • 52.5%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.265EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.225
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.63CPOE+1.94
  • 51.0%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 88.6%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
  • 2.81Points / drive1.93
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF
2022 · playoffsSEA @ SF23–41SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:5830Turnover0–0
SFQ1 12:35418Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 11:1238Punt7–0
SEAQ1 9:23720Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 5:4334Punt7–7
SEAQ1 4:403-5Punt7–7
SFQ1 3:17415Punt7–7
SEAQ1 0:39656Field goal7–10
SFQ2 13:27821Punt7–10
SEAQ2 8:3112Turnover13–10
SFQ2 8:22111Touchdown14–10
SEAQ2 8:171130Field goal14–13
SFQ2 1:56534Punt20–13
SEAQ2 0:181-4Opp touchdown21–13
SEAQ2 0:1323End of half21–13
SEAQ3 15:0022Turnover21–13
SFQ3 14:1135Missed field goal21–13
SEAQ3 13:11733Field goal21–16
SFQ3 8:5633Turnover21–16
SEAQ3 7:16323Touchdown21–23
SFQ3 5:52213Turnover21–23
SEAQ3 5:0136Field goal21–26
SFQ3 3:021495Touchdown29–26
SEAQ4 11:02633Field goal29–29
SFQ4 6:55743Field goal32–29
SEAQ4 1:56544Turnover on downs32–29
SFQ4 0:4700End of half32–29

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/2918921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey11686.21
Kaelon Black6162.70
Brock Purdy561.20
Deebo Samuel Sr.242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans7101131
George Kittle56240
Deebo Samuel Sr.23210
Christian McCaffrey33150
Jacob Cowing1290
Brandin Cooks1271
Luke Farrell0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold18/2919512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson20613.01
Jaxon Smith-Njigba11616.00
George Holani471.80
Sam Darnold155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba581021
George Holani44240
Rashid Shaheed24230
AJ Barner35200
Cooper Kupp23150
Emanuel Wilson22110
Elijah Arroyo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.92