2024 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

20·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

49

Model margin

+0.3est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.063
  • 44.4%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.044EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.059
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +4.61CPOE+1.77
  • 37.5%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.82Points / drive2.24
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF
2022 · playoffsSEA @ SF23–41SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:46839Field goal3–0
SFQ1 8:131271Touchdown3–7
SEAQ1 0:10734Punt3–7
SFQ2 11:0025Turnover3–7
SEAQ2 10:093-9Field goal6–7
SFQ2 8:411245Punt6–7
SEAQ2 1:41740Punt6–7
SFQ2 0:24422End of half6–7
SEAQ3 15:0032Turnover6–7
SFQ3 13:57827Field goal6–10
SEAQ3 9:261170Touchdown13–10
SFQ3 3:251580Touchdown13–17
SEAQ4 9:331033Turnover on downs13–17
SFQ4 3:56516Punt13–17
SEAQ4 2:381180Touchdown20–17
SFQ4 0:1222End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith25/3222101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III14543.91
Geno Smith4297.31
Jaxon Smith-Njigba188.00
Zach Charbonnet430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba10111100
DK Metcalf79700
Tyler Lockett23190
AJ Barner24150
Kenneth Walker III2250
Zach Charbonnet2220

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy21/2815911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey19794.20
Brock Purdy5408.01
Jordan Mason2136.50
Deebo Samuel Sr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings1011911
Christian McCaffrey45270
Deebo Samuel Sr.47220
Eric Saubert1170
Ricky Pearsall0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.33