Closing spread
SF -6
Total
49
Model margin
+0.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.063
- 44.4%Success rate46.0%
- +0.044EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.5%
- +4.61CPOE+1.77
- 37.5%Third-down rate43.1%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.82Points / drive2.24
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 25/32 | 221 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 | 11 | 110 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/28 | 159 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 10 | 11 | 91 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.33