Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.036
- 48.5%Success rate46.6%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
- +5.72CPOE+4.54
- 50.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 2.48Points / drive2.22
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 15/27 | 140 | 0 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 2/4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jordan James | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Tonges | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordan James | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 12/17 | 124 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 116 | 6.1 | 3 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Robbie Ouzts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+4.05