2025 · DIV · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

6·41

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.036
  • 48.5%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +5.72CPOE+4.54
  • 50.4%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.22
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF
2022 · playoffsSEA @ SF23–41SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 14:47717Turnover on downs0–7
SEAQ1 11:161049Field goal0–10
SFQ1 5:06214Turnover0–10
SEAQ1 4:17619Touchdown0–17
SFQ1 1:50943Field goal3–17
SEAQ2 11:5838Punt3–17
SFQ2 10:12957Field goal6–17
SEAQ2 4:321075Touchdown6–24
SFQ2 0:31418End of half6–24
SFQ3 15:00714Turnover on downs6–24
SEAQ3 12:06736Field goal6–27
SFQ3 7:07211Turnover6–27
SEAQ3 6:09647Touchdown6–34
SFQ3 2:2347Turnover on downs6–34
SEAQ3 0:41537Touchdown6–41
SFQ4 12:43724Turnover6–41
SEAQ4 9:1231Punt6–41
SFQ4 6:50616Punt6–41
SEAQ4 4:2339Punt6–41
SFQ4 1:54315End of half6–41

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy15/2714001
Mac Jones2/4400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brock Purdy5377.40
Christian McCaffrey11353.20
Jordan James6284.70
Mac Jones177.00
Brian Robinson341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jake Tonges56590
Christian McCaffrey56390
Jauan Jennings25230
Jordan James1170
Brian Robinson1130
Demarcus Robinson1110
Luke Farrell1210
Kendrick Bourne0200
Ricky Pearsall0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold12/1712410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III191166.13
Rashid Shaheed22713.50
Zach Charbonnet5204.00
Velus Jones Jr.6101.70
AJ Barner122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp55600
Kenneth Walker III33290
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34191
Jake Bobo11160
Rashid Shaheed0200
Robbie Ouzts0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+4.05