Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
0.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.091
- 46.6%Success rate48.5%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.033
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.54CPOE+5.72
- 40.9%Third-down rate50.4%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 2.22Points / drive2.48
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/26 | 198 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 16 | 97 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/27 | 127 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin0.00