2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

13·3

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

0.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.091
  • 46.6%Success rate48.5%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.033
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.54CPOE+5.72
  • 40.9%Third-down rate50.4%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.22Points / drive2.48
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF
2022 · playoffsSEA @ SF23–41SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:001357Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ1 7:2337Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:52335Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 4:2938Punt7–0
SEAQ1 2:26958Missed field goal7–0
SFQ2 12:28624Turnover on downs7–0
SEAQ2 9:35843Field goal10–0
SFQ2 5:19830Field goal10–3
SEAQ2 1:0623End of half10–3
SFQ3 15:00827Punt10–3
SEAQ3 10:07518Punt10–3
SFQ3 6:4739Punt10–3
SEAQ3 4:311155Field goal13–3
SFQ4 14:15764Turnover13–3
SEAQ4 10:211594Missed field goal13–3
SFQ4 2:2044Turnover on downs13–3
SEAQ4 1:5100End of half13–3

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold20/2619800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III16976.10
Zach Charbonnet17744.41
Sam Darnold691.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba68840
Kenneth Walker III44360
Cooper Kupp23290
Zach Charbonnet34230
AJ Barner23140
Eric Saubert23100
Rashid Shaheed1120

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/2712701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey8232.90
Brock Purdy22110.50
Brian Robinson294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings46350
Christian McCaffrey67340
George Kittle57290
Demarcus Robinson34240
Kendrick Bourne0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin0.00