2023 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Drew Lock

16·28

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -14.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.9est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.032EPA / play+0.179
  • 44.6%Success rate51.6%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.087EPA / rush+0.034
  • 9.6%Explosive rate13.8%
  • +1.54CPOE+4.51
  • 36.3%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 49.3%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 2.00Points / drive2.69
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF
2022 · playoffsSEA @ SF23–41SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:00275Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 14:03970Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 9:4432Punt7–7
SEAQ1 8:0233Punt7–7
SFQ1 6:2338Punt7–7
SEAQ1 4:48655Field goal10–7
SFQ1 0:56437Turnover10–7
SEAQ2 14:1366Punt10–7
SFQ2 11:12583Touchdown10–14
SEAQ2 8:18428Punt10–14
SFQ2 5:16745Punt10–14
SEAQ2 1:0323End of half10–14
SEAQ3 15:0039Punt10–14
SFQ3 13:59631Punt10–14
SEAQ3 10:03616Punt10–14
SFQ3 5:58775Touchdown10–21
SEAQ3 1:58378Touchdown16–21
SFQ3 0:24375Touchdown16–28
SEAQ4 14:0810Turnover16–28
SFQ4 13:59236Turnover16–28
SEAQ4 13:04529Punt16–28
SFQ4 11:15614Punt16–28
SEAQ4 8:101027Turnover16–28
SFQ4 2:59647End of half16–28

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock22/3126922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet9444.90
Kenneth Walker III8212.60
Drew Lock351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett66890
DK Metcalf25521
Noah Fant24350
Kenneth Walker III45330
Colby Parkinson22281
Jaxon Smith-Njigba47250
Zach Charbonnet1140
Will Dissly1130

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/2736821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey161459.10
Jordan Mason4205.01
Brock Purdy273.50
Deebo Samuel Sr.111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.791491
Brandon Aiyuk691260
George Kittle35761
Christian McCaffrey1180
Jordan Mason1160
Charlie Woerner1130
Jauan Jennings0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.1%

Expected total

48.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.60
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+6.89