Closing spread
SF -14.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.179
- 44.6%Success rate51.6%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.087EPA / rush+0.034
- 9.6%Explosive rate13.8%
- +1.54CPOE+4.51
- 36.3%Third-down rate48.1%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.00Points / drive2.69
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/31 | 269 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/27 | 368 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 145 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 9 | 149 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 9 | 126 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.1%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.60
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.89