Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.102
- 40.6%Success rate38.8%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.109
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.090
- 9.3%Explosive rate5.7%
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.65Points / drive1.20
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.020
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/22 | 146 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 116 | 6.8 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 19 | 72 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/24 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 6/13 | 61 | 0 | 1 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 5/11 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.17