Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
51
Model margin
+1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.046
- 45.0%Success rate40.8%
- +0.185EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.278
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.96CPOE+0.41
- 44.1%Third-down rate38.4%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.02Points / drive1.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/35 | 294 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 12 | 91 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 5 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/45 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Jones | 3 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 7 | 11 | 58 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.24