2017 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

30·26

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

51

Model margin

+1.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapLions
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.046
  • 45.0%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.278
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.96CPOE+0.41
  • 44.1%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.78
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3ATL @ DET6–20DET
2021 · W16DET @ ATL16–20ATL
2020 · W7DET @ ATL23–22DET
2014 · W8DET @ ATL22–21DET
2012 · W16ATL @ DET31–18ATL
2011 · W7ATL @ DET23–16ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL
2006 · W9ATL @ DET14–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DET
ATLQ1 15:001270Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 8:17837Punt7–0
ATLQ1 3:271041Field goal10–0
DETQ2 12:51523Field goal10–3
ATLQ2 10:271064Touchdown17–3
DETQ2 5:00853Field goal17–6
ATLQ2 1:5010Opp touchdown17–13
ATLQ2 1:41749Field goal20–13
DETQ2 0:3130Punt20–13
ATLQ2 0:0700End of half20–13
DETQ3 15:003-9Punt20–13
ATLQ3 13:32419Field goal23–13
DETQ3 11:371285Touchdown23–20
ATLQ3 4:51418Turnover23–20
DETQ3 2:4439Field goal23–23
ATLQ3 1:24475Touchdown30–23
DETQ4 14:50737Field goal30–26
ATLQ4 11:48756Turnover30–26
DETQ4 8:0334Punt30–26
ATLQ4 6:48523Punt30–26
DETQ4 3:1530Punt30–26
ATLQ4 2:52314Punt30–26
DETQ4 2:231585End of half30–26

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3529423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman211065.01
Tevin Coleman6467.70
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones712910
Taylor Gabriel56791
Tevin Coleman35430
Devonta Freeman33320
Mohamed Sanu46281
Andre Roberts11120
Austin Hooper1290

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/4526410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah14473.40
Matthew Stafford2199.50
Zach Zenner351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Jones33630
Golden Tate711581
Ameer Abdullah33390
Theo Riddick49380
Kenny Golladay25250
Marvin Jones36240
Eric Ebron2790
Darren Fells1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.24