Closing spread
DET -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.036
- 43.6%Success rate44.2%
- +0.130EPA / dropback+0.101
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.80CPOE+1.23
- 45.0%Third-down rate35.2%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.86Points / drive1.98
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/34 | 218 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris Redman | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 27 | 122 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 10 | 52 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerry Meier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15/32 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 11 | 115 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36