2011 · Week 7

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

23·16

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapLions
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.036
  • 43.6%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback+0.101
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.80CPOE+1.23
  • 45.0%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.98
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.6 points. DET are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3ATL @ DET6–20DET
2021 · W16DET @ ATL16–20ATL
2020 · W7DET @ ATL23–22DET
2017 · W3ATL @ DET30–26ATL
2014 · W8DET @ ATL22–21DET
2012 · W16ATL @ DET31–18ATL
2008 · W1DET @ ATL21–34ATL
2006 · W9ATL @ DET14–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DET
DETQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:3233Turnover0–0
DETQ1 12:133-10Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 10:2643Punt0–3
DETQ1 8:2154Punt0–3
ATLQ1 6:04621Field goal3–3
DETQ1 3:0100Touchdown3–3
ATLQ1 2:50829Touchdown10–3
DETQ1 0:04850Field goal10–6
ATLQ2 10:52911Punt10–6
DETQ2 6:00526Punt10–6
ATLQ2 3:30781Touchdown17–6
DETQ2 0:25213End of half17–6
ATLQ3 15:0036Punt17–6
DETQ3 13:25512Punt17–6
ATLQ3 11:133-1Punt17–6
DETQ3 10:02530Field goal17–9
ATLQ3 7:37651Field goal20–9
DETQ3 5:04684Touchdown20–16
ATLQ3 1:57657Turnover20–16
DETQ4 14:5437Punt20–16
ATLQ4 13:23920Field goal23–16
DETQ4 8:4131Punt23–16
ATLQ4 7:33737Punt23–16
DETQ4 3:201041Turnover on downs23–16
ATLQ4 1:30311End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3421812
Chris Redman0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner271224.50
Jacquizz Rodgers155.00
Matt Ryan320.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez58620
Harry Douglas47620
Roddy White510521
Jacquizz Rodgers34120
Michael Palmer1180
Michael Turner0100
Kerry Meier0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford15/3218310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris9505.60
Keiland Williams9444.90
Nate Burleson2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson5111151
Brandon Pettigrew46310
Tony Scheffler23150
Maurice Morris24130
Will Heller1280
Nate Burleson1310
Titus Young0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36